Predictions for 2009

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SAFER PREDICTIONS

  • Android Gains Significant Popularity: At this time, there is one Android phone on the market – the Tmobile G1. It is a decent version 1 phone, but isn’t getting the attention it deserves. Overshadowed by Apple’s Iphone, the Blackberry establishment, and more popular carriers. However, IMHO, the G1 is an incredible phone. With an increasing number of manufacturers planning to introduce Android models, more carriers, more programs and programmers, and inevitable improvements with maturity mean Android will have a huge impact on the cell phone and hopefully IP phone marketplace.
  • The Term “UC” or “Unified Communications” will go away as no one agrees what it means, what it includes, or what it is worth. Very rarely does such a vague term gain so much legitimacy.
  • More thin clients (including netbooks) as a percentage will be sold in 2009 compared to laptops and desktops than ever before. The driving factor is all that matters is the browser. Platforms don’t matter anymore, browsers do. The thin client just happens to have the browser with the lowest TCO. Related to this will be the increasing acceptance and (daresay) expectation of employee owned computers for teleworking.
  • 2009 will the year that Cloud computing is generally understood. Probably not implemented significantly, but that is just a matter of time. There will be clear distinctions between cloud computing and colo or SaaS. Some, but little voice will move to cloud based servers.
  • Nortel gets acquired, it will be by someone primarily outside the voice equipment industry.
  • SIP trunks will continue growth and the traditional voice carriers will struggle for revenue in some markets.
  • Significant consolidation in business VoIP equipment makers will occur via mergers and vendor terminations. No significant changes among the major players.

EXTRAORDINARY PREDICTIONS

  • Federal bail out discussions for Baby Bells.
  • Cell phone carriers introduce hosted PBX type features
  • The cell phone will continue its journey on becoming the voice device of choice. Expanding its threat from residential phones to office PBX systems as well.
  • Microsoft reluctantly ships more XP than Vista and Windows 7.
  • Apple falls off their perch

Dave Michels