Disappointment of 2009: Android
Normally I would not write about the biggest 2009 disappointment until December or even November. But in this case I will make an exception. Here we are in March, and I am going to state that Android is and will be one of the greatest telecom disappointments of 2009. Disappointment is a subjective word, it represents both the result as well as the expectation and Android had a lot to offer in both categories.
Several years ago, I bought a Sidekick II from T-mobile. The phone was clunky and large, but hands down the best phone I had had. It offered a nice display (though childish graphics), an excellent keyboard, AOL/AIM, and multiple e-mail accounts. The phone was a pleasure to use based on its design, and I considered it a viable laptop substitute for e-mail on short trips. I sat there in fancy conference rooms where everyone had a serious Blackberry and looked down upon my Sidekick, but I felt smugly superior. I tried those ridiculous Blackberry’s and knew my Sidekick offered a better experience despite its silly icons and graphics. There was no BES – but my email, contacts, and calendar all synchronized seamlessly.
The folks that created the Sidekick are largely those that Google utilized to create Android. I knew they had vision, but they got pigeon-holed into a teenage following. Now, in addition to their experience and vision, they had three things going for them: Google and its deep pockets, the proven success model of an open strategy (in a closed marketplace), and the success of the iPhone that changed the rules and expectations of the cellphone marketplace. These factors combined to create a perfect storm for Android. At least in theory.
The G1 was launched in October of 2008 and was a reasonable success (based on observation, Tmobile is mum about it). The phone pretty much performed as advertised. In comparison to the iPhone, the G1 was less expensive, offered a keyboard, and had far less restrictions on the applications. Several major manufacturers publicly embraced Android and promised new Android models. The iPhone is currently on its second revision – now supports Exchange, and its application library continues to grow. Now in March, the number of available Android models remains still at one – on its first release. T-mobile is still the only supported carrier – the smallest of the major carriers in the US. The huge CES show in January showed no new models, and the even more important Mobile World Congress in February only offered a glimpse of the G2 which is slated for Europe and is effectively the same as the G1 without the keyboard.
The iPhone continues to be the phone to beat, and few see any real threat. The folks at Palm are pretty excited about their Pre – but its first generation will have to compete with Apple’s third. The Pre looks nice, but it’s a portrait phone in a landscape world and it will be locked into Sprint. Blackberry, stumbled with their Storm, but made dramatic improvements with their Curve and Bold models. Nokia too is making great strides in their platform and the oh so many iPhone look alikes are popping up all over. The size of the installed base and the number of applications on the iPhone continue to grow increasing the gap that Android (or others) will need to fill (when Android was launched the gap was small).
Apple makes brilliant products. And they changed the rules. Before the iPhone, the carriers insisted that manufacturers limit the capabilities on their phones. The carriers were concerned about network consumption and churn and no manufacturer could stand up to the communication networks for fear of excommunication. Apple, with no phones currently on the market, had nothing to lose and AT&T; agreed. The success of the iPhone (and subsequently AT&T;) changed the rules. Now companies like Microsoft, with their huge base of crippled Windows Mobile phones find their offering totally obsolete.
There are two major mysteries to this which I can’t explain.
The first is why cash-rich Google allowed this to happen. It is during recessions that cash-rich companies typically make offensive plays. Why isn’t Google pushing Android? I see advertisements everywhere for the iPhone, but I don’t think I have seen an Android ad for months. I never hear about Android, and as I mentioned, there is still only one phone available on only one carrier. I was personally expecting a big Android splash at the Mobile World Congress – but it was as if Google accidentally overslept. Even the Sidekick had better marketing.
The other thing that confuses me is why the iPhone is so popular with the open source crowds. I really thought that the Open source movement would pull Android to success. Open source folks love Linux, Apache, WordPress, Asterisk, and Mozilla – to name a few – products pulled to success not by marketing budgets but by grassroots need. But the open source crowd seems to love the iPhone – a closed device available from one company on one platform on one network with a 2 year commitment. Even more so, this open source product is backed by Google – the company challenging Microsoft with competitive versions of Office, a browser, adword network, and more. If Google is the anti-evil company, what role does Microsoft play? Admittedly, there are serious limitations to an “open” cell phone solution – so much that Android can only be loosely defined as open. Regardless though, when compared against Apple – the company that makes a propriety power cord for their notebooks, what isn’t open? Where are the Android products from Sony, LG, Samsung, and more? Where are the Android products on Verizon (the company that has probably lost more than any other due to the iPhone’s success)?
Being March, there is a possibility this will all change. But products don’t appear out of no where. The Palm Pre was announced last month and is still months away. Even the iPhone was hyped up for four months before it was initially available. The deafening silence of the Android camp has me convinced things aren’t changing anytime soon.
What happened to Android?
Why is iPhone so popular in the open crowd?
Is Android (as a cell phone) dead?
Is Android as another type of device more likely (IP Phone, netbook, etc.)?
What should I replace my Windows Mobile 6 phone with?
I want answers!
[Note:I do not have an Android phone, but I got one for my wife. She loves it. The phone’s GUI and formfactor are superior to my WM6 phone, and if your life is on Google, it can’t be beat. For example, she has her email of course, but also separate calendars for all the family members on Google’s calendar (my calendar syncs from Outlook to Google for her). The solution is very rich and slick. Seems to me like it should be a hit.]
Ken Camp
I have to agree that Android seems to be the flop of the century. I’ve never even seen an Android device of any kind in person, but I’ve not heard anything that would recommend it and send me searching either. Not sure why
Orignal Comments Deleted due to problems with intensedebate comment software. Manually restored below.
Mike
Having spent 2 years on a Windows Mobile device (Dash), I am thrilled to be back on a Blackberry. I chose the Bold and couldn’t be more pleased. This is a pure business machine designed for folks who need to speed through lengthy emails while driving. IMHO, BB is for business, let the kids play with the other devices.
Ryo
Do you guys read the news beside apple fan sides?
Flop?
Most selling device in UK, serious impact on German market, time/sell relation in the US is great, despite recession, over 900+ free apps plus many paid apps and all that from September 2008 until March 2009.
Which planet are you living?
Ed Burnette
Android has a great community going, just read http://www.planetandroid.com for a few days and you’ll see. Now that devs can charge for applications (in the US, with more countries in the works), the number of apps is growing by leaps and bounds. I thought there would be more Android phones by now but it’ll happen.
Herman Hermit
Apparently they’re putting it on openmoko freerunner phones
http://www.sdgsystems.com/
Lefty
I can tell you about the lack of popularity of Android with the “open source crowd”: Android isn’t really an open source _community_ project, it’s just 7 million lines of code with an open source license wrapped around it. Google does little more for the community than write checks from time to time, and they’re widely viewed as being a “black hole” for open source code and talent: stuff goes in, and you never see it again.
Google had folks like Eric Chu spending most of last year wandering around to events like the Collaboration Summit to tell the community that Google had to reinvent every wheel in sight with Android because they thought existing code was unusable and the open source community “didn’t ship on schedule”, “didn’t have a sharp commecial focus”, etc.
After that, why would anyone care much about Android? Especially since you’re locked into the platform’s Java-only “object oriented application framework”…?
Lefty
I can tell you about the lack of popularity of Android with the “open source crowd”: Android isn’t really an open source _community_ project, it’s just 7 million lines of code with an open source license wrapped around it. Google does little more for the community than write checks from time to time, and they’re widely viewed as being a “black hole” for open source code and talent: stuff goes in, and you never see it again.
Teleweb
Windows Mobile 7 will dramatically change the way we use mobile devices. It will emphasize the use of touch on the device, as well as motion gestures created by using the device. It is, absolutely, Microsoft’s effort to beat back the iPhone, and the iPhone is referenced several times in their documents.
Windows Mobile 7 will use touch gestures, similar to how the iPhone does. You will be able to flick through lists, pan, swipe sideway, draw on the screen. A lot of emphasis has been put on making navigation easier and doing away with scrollbars, including a new scroll handle that allows for multiple ways of finding items extremely fast.
Windows Mobile 7 will use motion gestures, something the iPhone does not. It will not use an intricate and complicated series of gyroscopes and accelerometers. Instead, it will use the camera on the phone to detect motions and create appropriate actions. You will be able to shake, twist and otherwise manipulate the phone and get things done. The phone will be able to perform actions when placed face down on a surface, and it will know when it is in your pocket or bag.
TBC…
Windows Mobile 7 will have an exciting looking screen, that will allow you to play around with it, draw on it, shake it and completely otherwise mess with it.
Windows Mobile 7 will have dramatically improved visuals, different from the iPhone and much more similar to the dark and futuristic visuals of Windows Vista. It will feature graphical transitions, subtle effects, and other things to make it more interesting to look at. This is not detailed in the documents, but featured in the multitude of screenshots.
Windows Mobile 7 is designed to use the finger, not the stylus, though many devices will be required to include a stylus. It is designed to be easy to use with the hand, including one-handed, and to be fun to use and easy to understand. It is designed to be used on devices with no buttons, few buttons, lots of buttons, full keyboards, and devices without touch screens.
Windows Mobile 7 is clearly designed for better media playback, with screenshots indicating a much-improved Media Player and photo gallery application. Even a games mode. Mobile Internet Explorer runs full-screen web pages in a minimalistic interface, and has “tabbed” browsing, except you can switch tabs by shaking the phone.